About: Bullwhip effect

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The bullwhip effect is a supply chain phenomenon where orders to suppliers tend to have a larger variability than sales to buyers, which results in an amplified demand variability upstream. In part, this results in increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in consumer demand as one moves further up the supply chain. The concept first appeared in Jay Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester effect. It has been described as “the observed propensity for material orders to be more variable than demand signals and for this variability to increase the further upstream a company is in a supply chain”.Science at Stanford University helped incorporate the concept into supply chain vernacular using a story about Volvo. Suffering a glut in green car

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dbpedia-owl:abstract	長鞭效应（Bullwhip effect），或称牛鞭效应，是一种在需求预测驱动的销售渠道中被观察到的现象。此理论最早在1961年由在Industrial Dynamics中提出。在一般的商业活动中，客户的需求总是不稳定的，企业总是需要通过预测客户的需求来优化库存与其他资源的配置。而预测是建立在统计基础上的，一般来说是不可能完全精确的，所以企业在运营中常常会保留一些额外的库存作为。在供应链中，从下游到上游，从到原始供应商，每一个组成部分所需求的安全库存将会越来越多。在需求升高的时期，下游的企业将会增加从上游订货的数量，在需求降低的时期，下游的企业将会减少或者停止订货。而这种需求量的变化会随着供应链上溯而被放大。这种訊息扭曲的放大作用在图形显示上很像一根甩起的長鞭，因此被形象地称为長鞭效应。最下游的客户端相当于鞭子的根部，而最上游的供应商端相当于鞭子的梢部，在根部的一端只要有一个轻微的抖动，传递到末梢端就会出现很大的波动。在供应链上，这种效应越往上游，变化就越大，距终端客户越远，影响就越大。 (zh) ブルウィップ効果（Bullwhip Effect、Whiplash Effect、鞭効果）とは、需要を予測しながら発注する形態の流通経路で見られる現象である。この考えの元はジェイ・フォレスターの『Industrial Dynamics（産業のダイナミックス）』（1961年）にあり、そのため「フォレスター効果」としても知られている。変動する需要が拡大してサプライチェーンをさかのぼっていく様子が、むちを鳴らしているさまを思い出させるのでブルウィップ効果として有名になった。 (ja) O efeito chicote é definido como sendo a distorção da percepção da procura ao longo da cadeia de abastecimento na qual os pedidos para o fornecedor têm variância diferente da variância das vendas para o comprador. O efeito chicote (também conhecidos colectivamente como o “efeito bullwhip” ou “efeito whiplash”) é comum em sistemas de abastecimento (Lee et al., 1997, p. 546) e foram observados por Forrester (1961, p. 21-42), ao criar o conceito de dinâmica de sistemas e conceituado por Lee et al. (1997, p. 546-558). O efeito chicote é um fenómeno que produz impacto negativo sobre a regularidade e a estabilidade dos pedidos recebidos numa cadeia de abastecimento, em particular, observa-se este fenómeno quando a variação da procura aumenta à medida que se avança ao longo da cadeia (Chen et al., 2000, p. 436). O efeito chicote foi também conhecido como logística executiva da Procter & Gamble devido ao facto de uma pequena variação nos pedidos, ao nível dos consumidores, provocar uma amplificação da variação ao longo da cadeia actuando junto dos seus intervenientes, como sejam os grossistas e os fabricantes (Paik et al., 2007, p. 308). Como exemplo de visualização deste conceito, imagine-se um grupo de consumidores que pretendem mudar de computador e que baseiam a sua escolha na velocidade do microprocessador. O cliente, que representa o final da cadeia de abastecimento, ao mudar as suas preferências cria uma 'onda' ao longo da cadeia (pedidos de computadores com outras características). Como consequência do atraso de informação e de entregas, e da previsão menos conseguida da procura, esta 'onda' é amplificada sendo que a acumulação destes efeitos vai provocar uma grande variação na procura (pedidos) ao longo da cadeia de abastecimento, em especial no início da mesma (Schniederjans et al., 1999, p. 74). (pt) Der Ausdruck Peitscheneffekt (engl. bullwhip effect, whiplash effect) bezeichnet das Phänomen, dass Bestellungen beim Lieferanten zu größeren Schwankungen neigen als Verkäufe an den Kunden und damit von der Nachfrage abweichen und dass diese Abweichung sich in vorgelagerte Richtung der Lieferkette aufschaukelt, sich die Schwankung also zum Ursprung der Lieferkette hin vergrößert. Der Begriff nimmt im Supply-Chain-Management im Rahmen des Risikomanagements eine zentrale Rolle ein, da er die Notwendigkeit zu Integration und Koordination entlang der Lieferkette vor Augen führt. (de) 채찍효과(Bullwhip effect)는 공급사슬관리에서 반복적으로 발생하는 문제점 중 하나로, 이것은 제품에 대한 수요정보가 공급사슬상의 참여 주체를 하나씩 거쳐서 전달될 때마다 계속 왜곡됨을 의미한다. 어떤 아이템에 대한 수요가 변동은 공급사슬상의 다른 구성원(유통업체, 제조업체, 공급업체, 2차공급업체, 3차공급업체) 각자의 입장에서 ‘만약에 대비하기에’ 충분할 정도의 재고를 축적하도록 만든다. 이런 대응 추세는 주문계획에서 작은 변화가 증가되고, 재고, 생산, 창고, 운송과 관련된 과도한 비용이 발생되는 가운데, 공급사슬을 통해 확산되어 나간다. 채찍효과는 공급사슬의 모든 구성원이 정확한 최신정보로 수요 및 공급에 관한 불확실성을 감소시켜야 발휘된다. 공급사슬의 모든 구성원이 재고 수준, 일정, 예측, 배송에 관한 역동적인 정보를 공유한다면, 그들은 조달, 생산, 유통에 관한 계획을 어떻게 조정할지 더 정확한 판단을 할 수 있을 것이다. (ko) Het opslingereffect (ook wel zweepslageffect of bullwhip effect) verwijst naar het probleem dat kan ontstaan door de fluctuerende vraag van orders binnen een bevoorradingsketen. Door de fluctuerende vraag naar producten wordt het voorspellen van het aantal te produceren producten bemoeilijkt. De productievoorraad kan hierdoor in een situatie raken waarin hij binnen een kort tijdsbestek van een voorraadtekort in een voorraadoverschot overgaat, resulterend in een groot overschot. Bedrijven (leveranciers, detailhandelaren) die direct in verband staan met de desbetreffende bevoorradingsketen zijn hier vaak niet van op de hoogte en ontvangen de informatie te laat om adequaat het overschot te verwerken. Deskundigen op het gebied van bevoorradingsketens erkennen dat het opslingereffect vaak wordt geconstateerd bij bedrijven en producenten die gebruikmaken van ‘produceren naar voorraad’ en het ‘downstream’-pushen van producten naar de markt. Nauwkeurig management rond dit effect wordt gezien als een belangrijke taak voor supply chain-managers. Geschat wordt dat consequenties van het opslingereffect een invloed kunnen hebben ter grootte van 30% van de winst voor een productiebedrijf (Richard Metters, 1997). Dit hoge percentage ontstaat doordat men, als gevolg van het opslingereffect, grote investeringen in opslagruimte gaat doen om met de toegenomen vraagonzekerheid om te gaan, met als gevolg verminderde klantenservice door de traagheid van productie en distributiesysteem, verloren winsten door tekorten, verlaagde productiviteit van de kapitaalinvestering, niet efficiënt gebruik van transportcapaciteit en een groot aantal vertraagde productieschema’s (Christer Carlsson en Robert Fullér, 2000). (nl) El efecto látigo es un fenómeno observado en canales de distribución. Se refiere a una tendencia de cambios más y más grandes en inventario en respuesta a cambios en la demanda del cliente, cuando uno mira a las empresas en la parte trasera de la cadena de suministro para un producto. El concepto primero apareció en Jay Forrester Dinámica Industrial (1961) y por ello es también conocido como el efecto Forrester Desde la magnificación de la demanda oscilante cuesta arriba de una cadena de suministro es reminiscente a las grietas de un látigo, se conoció como el efecto látigo. (es) تأثير السوط (بالإنجليزية: Bullwhip effect)‏ هو ظاهرة لوحظت في قنوات التوزيع التي تحركها التوقعات. يشير إلى وجود اتجاه لتقلبات أكبر وأكبر في المخزون نتيجة الاستجابة للتغيرات في الطلب. ظهر هذا المصطلح للمرة الأولى في كتاب «الديناميات الصناعية» ل«» (1961)، وبالتالي يعرف أيضا بأنه تأثير فورستر. (ar) L'effetto Forrester, detto anche effetto frusta o Bullwhip, indica un aumento della variabilità della domanda man mano che ci si allontana dal mercato finale e si risale la catena di distribuzione (supply chain). (it) The bullwhip effect is a supply chain phenomenon where orders to suppliers tend to have a larger variability than sales to buyers, which results in an amplified demand variability upstream. In part, this results in increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in consumer demand as one moves further up the supply chain. The concept first appeared in Jay Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester effect. It has been described as “the observed propensity for material orders to be more variable than demand signals and for this variability to increase the further upstream a company is in a supply chain”.Science at Stanford University helped incorporate the concept into supply chain vernacular using a story about Volvo. Suffering a glut in green cars, sales and marketing developed a program to sell the excess inventory. While successful in generating the desired market pull, manufacturing did not know about the promotional plans. Instead, they read the increase in sales as an indication of growing demand for green cars and ramped up production. Research indicates a fluctuation in point-of-sale demand of five percent will be interpreted by supply chain participants as a change in demand of up to forty percent. Much like cracking a whip, a small flick of the wrist - a shift in point of sale demand - can cause a large motion at the end of the whip - manufacturers' responses. (en)
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comment	長鞭效应（Bullwhip effect），或称牛鞭效应，是一种在需求预测驱动的销售渠道中被观察到的现象。此理论最早在1961年由在Industrial Dynamics中提出。在一般的商业活动中，客户的需求总是不稳定的，企业总是需要通过预测客户的需求来优化库存与其他资源的配置。而预测是建立在统计基础上的，一般来说是不可能完全精确的，所以企业在运营中常常会保留一些额外的库存作为。在供应链中，从下游到上游，从到原始供应商，每一个组成部分所需求的安全库存将会越来越多。在需求升高的时期，下游的企业将会增加从上游订货的数量，在需求降低的时期，下游的企业将会减少或者停止订货。而这种需求量的变化会随着供应链上溯而被放大。这种訊息扭曲的放大作用在图形显示上很像一根甩起的長鞭，因此被形象地称为長鞭效应。最下游的客户端相当于鞭子的根部，而最上游的供应商端相当于鞭子的梢部，在根部的一端只要有一个轻微的抖动，传递到末梢端就会出现很大的波动。在供应链上，这种效应越往上游，变化就越大，距终端客户越远，影响就越大。 (zh) ブルウィップ効果（Bullwhip Effect、Whiplash Effect、鞭効果）とは、需要を予測しながら発注する形態の流通経路で見られる現象である。この考えの元はジェイ・フォレスターの『Industrial Dynamics（産業のダイナミックス）』（1961年）にあり、そのため「フォレスター効果」としても知られている。変動する需要が拡大してサプライチェーンをさかのぼっていく様子が、むちを鳴らしているさまを思い出させるのでブルウィップ効果として有名になった。 (ja) Der Ausdruck Peitscheneffekt (engl. bullwhip effect, whiplash effect) bezeichnet das Phänomen, dass Bestellungen beim Lieferanten zu größeren Schwankungen neigen als Verkäufe an den Kunden und damit von der Nachfrage abweichen und dass diese Abweichung sich in vorgelagerte Richtung der Lieferkette aufschaukelt, sich die Schwankung also zum Ursprung der Lieferkette hin vergrößert. Der Begriff nimmt im Supply-Chain-Management im Rahmen des Risikomanagements eine zentrale Rolle ein, da er die Notwendigkeit zu Integration und Koordination entlang der Lieferkette vor Augen führt. (de) 채찍효과(Bullwhip effect)는 공급사슬관리에서 반복적으로 발생하는 문제점 중 하나로, 이것은 제품에 대한 수요정보가 공급사슬상의 참여 주체를 하나씩 거쳐서 전달될 때마다 계속 왜곡됨을 의미한다. 어떤 아이템에 대한 수요가 변동은 공급사슬상의 다른 구성원(유통업체, 제조업체, 공급업체, 2차공급업체, 3차공급업체) 각자의 입장에서 ‘만약에 대비하기에’ 충분할 정도의 재고를 축적하도록 만든다. 이런 대응 추세는 주문계획에서 작은 변화가 증가되고, 재고, 생산, 창고, 운송과 관련된 과도한 비용이 발생되는 가운데, 공급사슬을 통해 확산되어 나간다. 채찍효과는 공급사슬의 모든 구성원이 정확한 최신정보로 수요 및 공급에 관한 불확실성을 감소시켜야 발휘된다. 공급사슬의 모든 구성원이 재고 수준, 일정, 예측, 배송에 관한 역동적인 정보를 공유한다면, 그들은 조달, 생산, 유통에 관한 계획을 어떻게 조정할지 더 정확한 판단을 할 수 있을 것이다. (ko) El efecto látigo es un fenómeno observado en canales de distribución. Se refiere a una tendencia de cambios más y más grandes en inventario en respuesta a cambios en la demanda del cliente, cuando uno mira a las empresas en la parte trasera de la cadena de suministro para un producto. El concepto primero apareció en Jay Forrester Dinámica Industrial (1961) y por ello es también conocido como el efecto Forrester Desde la magnificación de la demanda oscilante cuesta arriba de una cadena de suministro es reminiscente a las grietas de un látigo, se conoció como el efecto látigo. (es) تأثير السوط (بالإنجليزية: Bullwhip effect)‏ هو ظاهرة لوحظت في قنوات التوزيع التي تحركها التوقعات. يشير إلى وجود اتجاه لتقلبات أكبر وأكبر في المخزون نتيجة الاستجابة للتغيرات في الطلب. ظهر هذا المصطلح للمرة الأولى في كتاب «الديناميات الصناعية» ل«» (1961)، وبالتالي يعرف أيضا بأنه تأثير فورستر. (ar) Het opslingereffect (ook wel zweepslageffect of bullwhip effect) verwijst naar het probleem dat kan ontstaan door de fluctuerende vraag van orders binnen een bevoorradingsketen. Door de fluctuerende vraag naar producten wordt het voorspellen van het aantal te produceren producten bemoeilijkt. De productievoorraad kan hierdoor in een situatie raken waarin hij binnen een kort tijdsbestek van een voorraadtekort in een voorraadoverschot overgaat, resulterend in een groot overschot. Bedrijven (leveranciers, detailhandelaren) die direct in verband staan met de desbetreffende bevoorradingsketen zijn hier vaak niet van op de hoogte en ontvangen de informatie te laat om adequaat het overschot te verwerken. (nl) L'effetto Forrester, detto anche effetto frusta o Bullwhip, indica un aumento della variabilità della domanda man mano che ci si allontana dal mercato finale e si risale la catena di distribuzione (supply chain). (it) The bullwhip effect is a supply chain phenomenon where orders to suppliers tend to have a larger variability than sales to buyers, which results in an amplified demand variability upstream. In part, this results in increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in consumer demand as one moves further up the supply chain. The concept first appeared in Jay Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester effect. It has been described as “the observed propensity for material orders to be more variable than demand signals and for this variability to increase the further upstream a company is in a supply chain”.Science at Stanford University helped incorporate the concept into supply chain vernacular using a story about Volvo. Suffering a glut in green car (en) O efeito chicote é definido como sendo a distorção da percepção da procura ao longo da cadeia de abastecimento na qual os pedidos para o fornecedor têm variância diferente da variância das vendas para o comprador. O efeito chicote (também conhecidos colectivamente como o “efeito bullwhip” ou “efeito whiplash”) é comum em sistemas de abastecimento (Lee et al., 1997, p. 546) e foram observados por Forrester (1961, p. 21-42), ao criar o conceito de dinâmica de sistemas e conceituado por Lee et al. (1997, p. 546-558). (pt)
label	Bullwhip effect (en) Efecto látigo (es) Efeito chicote (pt) Effetto Forrester (it) Opslingereffect (nl) Peitscheneffekt (Supply-Chain-Management) (de) تأثير السوط (ar) ブルウィップ効果 (ja) 长鞭效应 (zh) 채찍효과 (ko)
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