About: Olduvai theory

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The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, mankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture, such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory, put forward by based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology.

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dbpedia-owl:abstract	La théorie d'Olduvaï est une hypothèse énoncée par Richard Duncan en 1989 puis développée par la suite. Son nom fait référence au site préhistorique des gorges d'Olduvaï en Tanzanie. Elle postule que la durée de la civilisation industrielle sera de 100 ans. Ayant commencé selon son auteur en 1930, elle devrait donc se terminer en 2030. Elle s'appuie sur un seul indicateur : le rapport entre la quantité mondiale d'énergie produite (donc consommée) et la population humaine. Elle décompose l'évolution de la civilisation industrielle en trois phases distinctes : la phase pré-industrielle, la phase industrielle puis la phase post-industrielle. Selon les données historiques, le déclin de la civilisation industrielle a déjà commencé puisque le pic de consommation énergétique par habitant a été atteint en 1979[réf. souhaitée]. Cette théorie ne se vérifie pas sur la période récente : la consommation d'énergie primaire par habitant a continué à progresser : de 46,7 GJ/hab en 1966, elle est passée à 64,6 GJ/hab en 1979, puis 64,6 GJ/hab en 2000 et 72,4 GJ/hab en 2019 selon BP et 79,1 GJ/hab en 2019 selon l'Agence internationale de l'énergie. (fr) The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, mankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture, such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory, put forward by based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology. Originally, the theory was proposed in 1989 under the name "pulse-transient theory". Subsequently, in 1996, its current name was adopted, inspired by the famous archaeological site, but the theory does not rely in any way on data collected at that site. Richard C. Duncan has published several versions since the appearance of his first paper with different parameters and predictions, which has been a source of criticism and controversy. In 2007, Duncan defined five postulates based on the observation of data on: 1. * The world energy production per capita. 2. * Earth carrying capacity. 3. * The return to the use of coal as a primary source and the peak oil production. 4. * Migratory movements. 5. * The stages of energy utilization in the United States. In 2009, he again publishes an update restating the postulate concerning world energy consumption per capita with respect to OECD countries, where previously he only compared with United States, downplaying the role of emerging economies. Different people, such as , based on this and other theories of catastrophic collapse or die-off, have formulated probable scenarios with various dates and social events. On the other hand, there is a group of people, such as Richard Heinberg or Jared Diamond, who also believe in social collapse, but still visualize the possibility of more benevolent scenarios where degrowth can occur with continued welfare. This theory has been criticized for the way in which the problem of migratory movements is posed and for the ideological orientation of the publishing house that published its articles, The Social Contract Press, which is an advocate of anti-immigration measures and birth control. There are major criticisms on each of the argumentative bases and different ideologies contrary to such approaches such as the Cornucopians, the advocates of the natural resource-based economy, environmentalist positions and the positions of various nations also fail to establish a consistent basis for such claims. (en) La teoria di Olduvai (dal titolo originale World Energy Production, Population, Growth, And The Road to the Olduvai Gorge) è stata proposta da , ingegnere petrolifero e direttore dell', che ha portato a termine nel 1989 un'ampia modellizzazione riguardo all'esaurimento delle risorse petrolifere. La teoria, che prevede una durata limitata per la civiltà industriale, prende il nome dal sito archeologico della Gola di Olduvai, in Tanzania, che Duncan considera "una buona metafora per riferirsi alla vita nell'Età della Pietra". (it) Teoria Olduvai – ocena ograniczonej długości trwania okresu industrializacji (definiowanej miarą konsumpcji energii na osobę) do ok. 100 lat (1930–2030). Teoria jest rozwinięciem spekulacji o przemijająco-pulsującym cyklu (transient-pulse theory) rozwoju nowoczesnej cywilizacji. Nazwa pochodzi od lokalnej nazwy wąwozu w Tanzanii, która jest także używana do określenia najstarszych kultur ludzkich w Afryce. (pl) Olduvaiko teoria ehun urteko epea ezartzen dion teoria bat da: 1930etik 2030era bitarteko epea, alegia. Epe hori bukatzean, gizadiak pixkanaka atzera egingo luke aurrez bizi izandako zibilizazio mailetara, eta mila bat urte barru (XXX. mendean) ehizan oinarritutako kultura batera iritsiko litzateke: hau da, Lurrean duela hiru milioi urte industria garatu zenean izan zen bezalako kultura batera (hortik datorkio izena teoriari). Teoria hau proposatu zuen, bere arkeologiazaletasuna eta gizadiak egiten duen energia iturrien erabilera oinarri hartuta. Duncanek dioenez, teoriak bost postulatu ditu: 1. * Energia ekoizpenaren hazkunde esponentziala 1970ean bukatu zen. 2. * Ameriketako Estatu Batuen per capita energia ekoizpenak izan zuen goraldia, berrikitan izan duen geldialdia eta hasi berria duen azken gainbehera, izatez, munduko gainerako aldeetan per capita energia ekoizpenak dituen aldien aurrerapenak dira. Bilakaera horretan, energia iturri nagusia petrolioa izatetik ikatza izatera aldatu da. 3. * Industria zibilizazioaren azken gainbehera 2008-2012 bitartean hasiko da. 4. * Argindar horniduraren itzalaldi partzialak eta osoak azken gainbeheraren adierazle fidagarriak izango dira. 5. * Munduko giza biztanleen kopuruak behera egingo du, munduko per capita energia ekoizpenarekin batera. (eu) La teoría de Olduvai establece que la civilización industrial actual tendría una duración máxima de cien años, contados a partir de 1930. De 2030 en adelante, la humanidad iría poco a poco regresando a niveles de civilización comparables a otros anteriormente vividos, culminando dentro de unos mil años (3000 d. C.) en una cultura basada en la caza, tal y como existía en la Tierra hace tres millones de años, cuando se desarrolló la industria olduvayense; de ahí el nombre de esta teoría, planteada por Richard C. Duncan basándose en su experiencia en el manejo de fuentes de energía y por su afición a la arqueología. Originalmente, la teoría fue propuesta en 1989 con el nombre de «teoría de pulso-transitorio». Posteriormente, en 1996, se adoptó su actual denominación inspirándose en el famoso sitio arqueológico, pero la teoría no depende en forma alguna de datos recopilados en ese sitio. Richard C. Duncan ha publicado varias versiones desde la aparición de su primer artículo con distintos parámetros y pronósticos, lo que ha sido motivo de críticas y controversias. En 2007, Duncan define cinco postulados fundamentándose en la observación de datos sobre: 1. * La producción de energía mundial per cápita. 2. * La capacidad de carga terrestre. 3. * La vuelta a la utilización del carbón como fuente primaria y el pico de la producción de petróleo. 4. * Los movimientos migratorios. 5. * Las etapas de utilización de energía en Estados Unidos. En 2009, nuevamente publica una actualización replanteando el postulado concerniente al consumo de energía per cápita mundial con respecto a los países de la OCDE, en donde anteriormente solo comparaba con Estados Unidos, restando importancia al papel de las economías emergentes. Distintas personas, como Pedro A. Prieto, basándose en esta y otras teorías del colapso catastrófico o die-off, han formulado probables escenarios con varias fechas y eventos sociales. Por otro lado, existe una corriente de personas, como Richard Heinberg o Jared Diamond, que también creen en el colapso social, pero aún visualizan la posibilidad de escenarios más benevolentes en donde se puede dar el decrecimiento con continuidad del bienestar. Esta teoría ha sido criticada por la forma en que se plantea el problema de los movimientos migratorios y por la orientación ideológica de la editorial que ha publicado sus artículos, , que es defensora de medidas antinmigratorias y del control de la natalidad. Existen críticas importantes sobre cada una de las bases argumentativas y distintas ideologías contrarias a tales planteamientos como los , los defensores de la economía basada en recursos naturales, posturas ecologistas y posturas de distintas naciones, también fallan a la hora de establecer una base coherente con dichas aseveraciones. (es) La teoria d'Olduvai és una hipòtesi que prediu el declivi de la civilització, tornant a una cultura pròpia de la prehistòria com la que va sorgir a la Gorja d'Olduvai, de la qual agafa el nom aquesta teoria formulada per Richard C. Duncan. Calcula que el progrés tecnològic es detindrà el 2030 i començarà la involució per manca d'energia disponible. Alguns han vist en aquest escenari hipòtetic una amenaça que suposaria l'extinció de la humanitat o la seva reducció dràstica, un panorama propi de la distopia literària i cinematogràfica. (ca)
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comment	Olduvaiko teoria ehun urteko epea ezartzen dion teoria bat da: 1930etik 2030era bitarteko epea, alegia. Epe hori bukatzean, gizadiak pixkanaka atzera egingo luke aurrez bizi izandako zibilizazio mailetara, eta mila bat urte barru (XXX. mendean) ehizan oinarritutako kultura batera iritsiko litzateke: hau da, Lurrean duela hiru milioi urte industria garatu zenean izan zen bezalako kultura batera (hortik datorkio izena teoriari). Teoria hau proposatu zuen, bere arkeologiazaletasuna eta gizadiak egiten duen energia iturrien erabilera oinarri hartuta. (eu) La théorie d'Olduvaï est une hypothèse énoncée par Richard Duncan en 1989 puis développée par la suite. Son nom fait référence au site préhistorique des gorges d'Olduvaï en Tanzanie. Elle postule que la durée de la civilisation industrielle sera de 100 ans. Ayant commencé selon son auteur en 1930, elle devrait donc se terminer en 2030. Elle s'appuie sur un seul indicateur : le rapport entre la quantité mondiale d'énergie produite (donc consommée) et la population humaine. (fr) La teoria di Olduvai (dal titolo originale World Energy Production, Population, Growth, And The Road to the Olduvai Gorge) è stata proposta da , ingegnere petrolifero e direttore dell', che ha portato a termine nel 1989 un'ampia modellizzazione riguardo all'esaurimento delle risorse petrolifere. La teoria, che prevede una durata limitata per la civiltà industriale, prende il nome dal sito archeologico della Gola di Olduvai, in Tanzania, che Duncan considera "una buona metafora per riferirsi alla vita nell'Età della Pietra". (it) La teoría de Olduvai establece que la civilización industrial actual tendría una duración máxima de cien años, contados a partir de 1930. De 2030 en adelante, la humanidad iría poco a poco regresando a niveles de civilización comparables a otros anteriormente vividos, culminando dentro de unos mil años (3000 d. C.) en una cultura basada en la caza, tal y como existía en la Tierra hace tres millones de años, cuando se desarrolló la industria olduvayense; de ahí el nombre de esta teoría, planteada por Richard C. Duncan basándose en su experiencia en el manejo de fuentes de energía y por su afición a la arqueología. (es) Teoria Olduvai – ocena ograniczonej długości trwania okresu industrializacji (definiowanej miarą konsumpcji energii na osobę) do ok. 100 lat (1930–2030). Teoria jest rozwinięciem spekulacji o przemijająco-pulsującym cyklu (transient-pulse theory) rozwoju nowoczesnej cywilizacji. Nazwa pochodzi od lokalnej nazwy wąwozu w Tanzanii, która jest także używana do określenia najstarszych kultur ludzkich w Afryce. (pl) The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, mankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture, such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory, put forward by based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology. (en) La teoria d'Olduvai és una hipòtesi que prediu el declivi de la civilització, tornant a una cultura pròpia de la prehistòria com la que va sorgir a la Gorja d'Olduvai, de la qual agafa el nom aquesta teoria formulada per Richard C. Duncan. Calcula que el progrés tecnològic es detindrà el 2030 i començarà la involució per manca d'energia disponible. Alguns han vist en aquest escenari hipòtetic una amenaça que suposaria l'extinció de la humanitat o la seva reducció dràstica, un panorama propi de la distopia literària i cinematogràfica. (ca)
label	Olduvai theory (en) Olduvaiko teoria (eu) Teoria Olduvai (pl) Teoria d'Olduvai (ca) Teoria di Olduvai (it) Teoría de Olduvai (es) Théorie d'Olduvaï (fr)
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